As the situation unfolds in Niger Republic following the recent coup, experts have weighed in on the potential economic consequences of resorting to military intervention to restore democracy.

These assessments were offered in separate statements by Nigerian professionals, who underscored the importance of considering the geopolitical complexities within the sub-region.

Since soldiers from Niger’s presidential guard removed President Mohamed Bazoum and imposed a border closure, concerns have been raised regarding the economic fallout of such actions. It has been projected that Nigeria could experience trade losses of approximately $1.3 billion due to these border restrictions against Niger.

Dr. Muda Yusuf, the founder of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises (CPPE), expressed approval of ECOWAS’s stance in favor of restoring constitutional democracy. However, he urged careful reflection on the potential implications of military intervention, emphasizing the extensive social, economic, welfare, and security ramifications for the sub-region and its inhabitants.

Yusuf stressed that the considerable macroeconomic, trade, security, and geopolitical consequences should be thoroughly analyzed, given the significant risk of collateral damage.

He emphasized the necessity for rigorous contemplation, extensive consultation, and a historically informed approach to evaluating the multifaceted implications of such actions.

Furthermore, he highlighted that military interventions among member states could run counter to one of ECOWAS’s core mandates: promoting economic integration. The financial toll of a military campaign, as demonstrated by previous instances like the Liberia and Sierra Leone wars, could be substantial and unpredictable.

Yusuf cautioned against undermining Nigeria’s balance of payment position, which, if weakened, could erode investor confidence, hamper growth prospects, and impede economic recovery.

Dr. Michael Olawale-Cole, President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), offered an alternative perspective on the matter. While supporting ECOWAS’s aim of restoring democratic order, Olawale-Cole emphasized that dialogue rather than hasty military action should be the preferred method for achieving this objective.

He highlighted the distinct challenges faced by the ECOWAS region, characterized by low economic growth, high birth rates, productivity challenges, manpower shortages, and technological limitations. Olawale-Cole cautioned against deploying Nigerian troops to Niger, suggesting that addressing Nigeria’s internal security issues would have a more positive impact on trade, investment, and economic development.

The LCCI president advocated for high-level political, consultative, and diplomatic engagement with the parties involved in Niger’s coup, believing that peaceful resolutions would be more effective in ensuring stability and prosperity within the sub-region.

Both experts underscored the importance of a comprehensive understanding of the potential consequences and encouraged strategic and well-considered approaches to addressing the ongoing situation in Niger.